Weekend Thoughts …
- All eyes on the FED … Tuesday will be the first time the Fed will use its “new” communication tool … forcasting for the next 3 years instead of 2 (if I remember right, they sometimes cannot foresee 2 weeks) … having each member forcast 4 indicators … then cut the highest 3 and the lowest 3 and publish the range … Let’s see what we can read out of it … or not 
- Thanksgiving … so some position squaring only? Or high volatility on low volume?
- numbers … important only Tuesday’s housing starts … and Wednesday’s consumer sentiment
- credit crunch … Goldman sees (they are short as I remember) up to 2 trillion less credit for the markets … which is the size of the yearly GDP of Germany … ooops … as they see 200 bln$ losses on subprime and CDO’s … on the other hand, Dt. Bank … (still long obviously) sees 400bln$ losses which is more … but sees the BIG write offs out of the way and compare it with ONE bad day in the stockmarket … they compare it with a 2.5% loss in the market … which scares nobody … as we hade some of them recently …
So … to be honest … some weeks ago … I were monsternegative on the market as I saw the situation unfolding … but the informed (as one thinks) money held them up … now as the information is more freely available … more and more people put numbers to the mess (Bank of America expects the housing mess to unwind until 2011, forecasting a 15% fall in house prices) … NOW, I am more positive as the numbers are all better than I thought and at the end it is all only a refinancing problem and the FED and the ECB are busy pumping money quicker than the OPEC can pump oil … and … the market gets weak …
Conclusion … The “informed guys” were not informed but stupid and blind … or … first … they were really afraid and had to hold it up at any cost (it does not matter whether you go belly up, owing 5 bln $ or 50 bln $) … and now they try to shake out the fast money … and the market will move higher towards the year end … which way it is … this will be decided very soon … so … as fundamental information does NOT help … and most of the times is not real time available … I better stick to the charts :)))
