Weekend Thoughts …
Next week could decide the fate of the Dax … as well as other markets … (pls. see Chartcomments MONTHLY and DAILY)
We had our “holiday-related” bounce, BUT next Friday is the end of the month and a lot of data coming up, giving plenty reasons to buy or sell.
Everybody talks about …
-the retailers … but … volume does not equals earnings … most of them cut prices deeply as they felt they had to do it.
-the FED … to cut or not to cut … this is the question … and … both does not bode well for the stock markets … if you are honest …
-housing/subprime/CDO situation …
Countrywide … moving closer to the edge … remember … the BoA investment already lost about half its value
Northern Rock … seemingly not only George Soros can break the Bank of England … no end in sight … not even after giving them 25 bln pounds
GMAC … trying to keep their mortgage unit above water … could mean trouble for Cerberus, the majority owner … slowing M&A business further
France … considers own Superfund as problems mount …
Europe … covered bond trading halted by banks as spreads rose … should/could resume Nov., 27th …
Securitizing … Unicredito CEO says … this market/model does not exist anymore …
So the news flow stays negative … the only plus the market has … traders and investors are very bearish … as market is well oversold.
Influential data NEXT WEEK:
Tuesday – US chain store sales, US consumer confidence, German CPI, German IFO
Wednesday – US mortgage applications, US durable goods and US existing home sales, German GfK
Thursday – US GDP, US PCE(Q3), US jobless claims, US new home sales, US house price index, German unemployment
Friday – MONTHEND, US PCE Oct., US personal spending, US Chicago PM, US contruction spending
Fasten seat belts???
Tags: BoE, Countrywide, FED, housing, Northern Rock, outlook, retail, subprime
