Results … my idea and target

As I received emails, asking me about my approach towards the results … here the answer

First … thank you for asking … I appreciate every question which is helpful … for me and as well for others …
(please use this e-mail —-> Oliver1414@gmail.com)

My idea is … the Dax trades around 7500 points … how much do I want to earn … and what seem to be realistic?

Since 2003 we had a raging bull market and moved 6000 points within 4 years … equals 1500 points a year.
As it trades around 7500 points … how much is a satisfying percentage … I think 20% … equals 1500 points a year … again.

So how many days will I trade during a year? Deducting all weekends, national holidays and some vacation time we talk about 200 days a year.

Now comes the problem … if I like to earn 1500 points a year … and trade 200 days … how many points should I go for on any given day … and maybe more important … how many can I lose … yes … losing is part of the equation

To reach the target, I need 7.5 points EVERY(!!!) day … on average … so … if I lose every 3rd day, I need to hike that number by 50% … so … around 12 points is a must … if my losses are 7.5 points only … ok … this is not realistic … so I shoot for around 30 points to allow for these kind of losses as well and I would be satisfied if at the end of the trading year I came up with anything higher than a 7.5 point average … doubledigit points would be a dream target … especially taking FEW TRADES … as commission is a cost factor, too.

Is that realistic? I think, yes … and I will find out putting the results here up the blog.

P.S.: the good thing about a low frequency trading style … despite the commission “savings” … I could multiply that easily … reproduce it later … yes, you get the point

Tags: 4me, result, statistic

This entry was posted on Mittwoch, November 28th, 2007 at 18:02 and is filed under FDAX. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.