Weekend Thoughts … fed up waiting on the FED?
All eyes on the FED … but don’t we know already, what they will do?
25bps for the FED funds and maybe even more for the discount rate … the discount rate cut can be bigger as they want to have it USED … fighting against the rising interbank rates.
The outlook of the FED will be more interesting … but … even for them … the situation is far from clear … this is mirrored by the markets which are close to the REAL DECISION POINT!
So … what’s news despite the FED?
- UBS is said to have an unscheduled board meeting this weekend … is said to announce further write offs as soon as MONDAY MORNING (8-10 bln CHF) … UBS has tuesday an investor day in London and seemingly feels that they have to inform the public first … updating their situation
- Citibank is close to announce a new CEO … best guess at the moment … Vikram Pandit … the former Morgan Stanley guy, whose HF Company Citi bought in July. Citi’s hunt for a CEO does again show, that this bank has huge problems … it lasts too long … and they seemingly have to recrute one who is more or less from “outside” … Citi is rumoured to report up to 11bln$ more write offs for Q4 …
- Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley have reached deals to form investment-banking joint ventures in China
- German CEO of McKinsey and Bank for International Settlements warn on more subprime and housing fallout to follow … starting early 2008 with Q4 results …
- As of Friday, the JP Morgan CEO prdicts a wave of mergers in the financial sectors AFTER(!) the crisis … sees sellers busy now … buyers after 
- China raises reserve ratio by ONE percantage point to 14.5% … double their usual steps … showing willingness to stop highflying loan growth
All in all … especially after reading an article in the FT written by the chief strategist of Pictet Asset Management …
If one is able to read and able to do simple math … you know, that you should be out of this market … even SHORT … so everybody is or should be as underweighted as possible to be well positioned for the ultimate CRASH which seems to be only a matter of time …
So … who is left to sell??? Are there only surprises to the upside possible? Will we have a huge squeeze to the upside??? Has the BULL found his next leg???
So the next weeks will decide, whether exactly this is the case … or whether all this year 2007 STUPIDITY and IGNORANCE ruled (I tend towards the latter, but let the market convince me otherwise) … this should guarantee us a volatile and stellar year 2008 … I am quite sure that the 2008 closing price will be more than 20% away from the 2007 close … so 10.000 or 6.000 for the Dax
The decision might well come during the next 6 to 8 weeks … so take care … Xmas ahead!
Tags: 2008, China, Citibank, CSFB, FED, housing, Morgan Stanley, outlook, subprime, UBS
