with Oli | Strategies


The “Amateur Hour”

What we are experiencing now … the first days of 2008 … is exactly that, what we call in a daily sense the “Amateur hour”. The first hour of trading, where all the amateurs buy and sell and wrong positions get closed/stopped out. And as we know, it is the hour, which the professionals use to position themselves … often at a … then in hindsight … favorable price ;)

Now … as a new year starts, the SAME THING happens … the first days, some say, the first two weeks … are being used by the Pros to trap the “rest” in wrong positions.

So check, what we have seen today …

A first hour “surge” in Europe, esp. in the DAX, which then got crushed within 20 mins after the US data … So today, it worked ;)

But for the year??? First trading day had the BIGGEST point loss (Dow Jones) EVER on a 1st trading day of the year … OOOPS :)
We had Oil topping 100 $ and Gold moving closer to an alltimehigh as well. So the move was SELL EQUITIES, BUY COMMODITIES AND BONDS … hmmm

As this is EXACTLY the direction, most people think to be THE DIRECTION for 2008 … I DOUBT IT!!!

At the moment … like on a daily basis ;) … I monitor it closely, but stick to the sidelines … the real market moving people don’t start trading before next Monday … and I LOVE to copy successful people :D

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