with Oli | Strategies


Fed’s impact limited …

Has the rallye stalled already? 2 days of buying … that’s it? Not bad … fasten seat belts for a nasty ride? New lows very soon?
And the bears happy, that Fed has not much ammunition left …

The US markets not even tried once to go higher today … a slow and steady flow of selling … ugly picture … no helicopter in sight ;)

If you want to know why, just read the Fed’s quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers … BAD …

- Banks are raising their credit standards for mortgages, consumer loans and commercial real estate loans at a pace never seen in the 17-year history
- Banks expect more delinquencies and charge offs for most types of loans to consumers and businesses
- Banks said they were tightening their lending standards in response to weaker economy, reduced tolerance of risk, and decreased liquidity in secondary markets
- Banks are requiring more disclosures, more collateral and a higher interest rate before approving loans
- Banks are less willing to approve consumer installment loans

And most of them even charge HIGHER rates because of the higher risk they face.

AUTSCH … in other words … as expected, the rate cuts only help to pay the banks’ errors, done out of stupidity and greed … Sad, but nevertheless true …

This market looks sick … and way to high … and look at Friday’s driving factors:

Microsoft / Yahoo … Google offers help to Yahoo, tries to derail merger … or at least complicate it
Bond Insurer bail out … Deal hits obstacles …
Rio Tinto … Alcoa and their chinese friends say, they will not hike stake in Rio Tinto … BHP rumoured to NOT bid higher
Financials and Techs … after Fed rate cuts … hefty profit taking

So again … AUTSCH

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