with Oli | Strategies


Negative sentiment keeps market up …

Extreme negative investor sentiment keeps market up, a Merill Lynch study shows:

- Investors are hoarding more cash then at any time since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks
- Money managers turned “underweight” equities for the first time since March 2003
- The majority of respondents now say markets are facing a period stagflation
- 51% percent of respondents to the poll said their willingness to take on investment risks was “lower than normal,” the biggest percentage in more than seven years
- The percentage of those believing the global economy is currently in recession doubled in February to 16 percent, while those thinking a recession is “likely” in the next 12 months jumped to 28 percent from 19 percent.
- Favoritism for European stocks ended this month. Investors who were “overweight” the region’s equities fell to 7 percent, down from 23 percent in January and close to 60 percent six months ago

AUTSCH :)

Remember … THIS FOLLOWS a fall in markets of up to a THIRD … Hmmm

Does that mean, that I should be buying Dax like crazy now? ;)

Fact is, that money managers obviously are too bearish and THAT explains nicely “weird” market reactions to the upside on really NOT bullish news …

as …

Buffett’s bond insurer story and today’s retail sales.

The main component being responsible for the better retail sales data was HIGHER GASOLINE prices and consumption … nothing which could excite a working brain ;)

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