Bear market persists … what next?
Bears still reigning … sharp short lived rallies and longer declines on bigger volume …
The fight is on … the price is high! Fed, politics and financials trying to hold markets up … bears trying to squash them …
Rumour-Mill spinning like crazy … every day …
Today’s rumours … not all, just a few …
- RBS in trouble … facing at least a 10 bln GBP write down … DENIED
- BlackRock facing an at least 8 to 10bln $ write down … DENIED
- CS to restate 2007 result by “some” billions …
- More European Banks to face bigger monoline exposure … talk is double digit billion Euros
The facts 
- Most company earnings come in better than expected … or better than FEARED 
- equities seem(!) to be cheap compared to other investments … at least as long as investors are waiting for proof of recession and seemingly ignore or have to ignore(?) the implications of further write downs in the financial sector on possible monoline downgrades.
- Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., an agency, which insures basic pension benefits for U.S. workers and retirees, announces that it will hike its exposure to equities from 28% to 45% and will put 10% into a portfolio of “alternative investments,” which would be split equally between real estate and private equity.
So for a real move we need a trigger … a decision on the bond insurers, or more hints, whether a recession has arrived yet or is about to arrive soon.
Technically, we are in a bearish consolidation and should see new LOWS for 2008 soon.
Tags: asset allocation, BlackRock, bond insurers, CSFB, outlook, RBS
