After polical pressure mounts to split monoliners into a good insurer/bad insurer-model and FGIC already working on it, MBIA and Ambac seem to follow the same path. Makes policymakers happy as their muni bond business can go on without being hurt, but should make investors worry, who will be hurt as banks will have to [...]

Oil closed today at about 101$ … on March expiration only … April contract is still below 100$ As OPEC always states, markets are well supplied … they even sell their oil at a discount as otherwise they could not sell it. Financial speculation drives prices … some analyst think, that about 30$(!) of the [...]

Fed sparks interest rate fantasy again … inflation does not matter to them at the moment … As current inflation is already higher than interest rates, bonds rather act as a hedge to equities only. Fed revised economic forecast by 0.5%, still going for 2008 growth up to 2% … hope they will not have [...]

Bears still reigning … sharp short lived rallies and longer declines on bigger volume … The fight is on … the price is high! Fed, politics and financials trying to hold markets up … bears trying to squash them … Rumour-Mill spinning like crazy … every day … Today’s rumours … not all, just a [...]

Once upon a time there was a large UK based lender called Northern Rock … It had a stupid business model and failed acordingly … Everybody tried to find a buyer … Goldman Sachs advised the Government … but not even THEM wanted to make a decent bid So the ashamed Government had to take [...]

Bernanke’s statement concludes with the following sentence: The FOMC will be carefully evaluating incoming information bearing on the economic outlook and will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate INSURANCE(!!!) against downside risks. He offers INSURANCE Interestingly enough, he sees (hopes for) more growth later in the year [...]

Extreme negative investor sentiment keeps market up, a Merill Lynch study shows: – Investors are hoarding more cash then at any time since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks – Money managers turned “underweight” equities for the first time since March 2003 – The majority of respondents now say markets are facing a period stagflation – [...]

… and everybody cheers … close to being unbelievable … Buffett offers to take on “all” Muni Bonds … the least risky and juciest of the bond insurers’ portfolios … Good move for him … but bad move for the bond insurers … even he expects them to PAY UP for this favor to him [...]