And again the market plays the card of hope …
After Q1 is booked … and with it some losses …
Everybody is bullish and confident again (unbelievable!)
Still there is NO VISIBILITY at all, how long and deep the recession might be …
NO CHANGES so far in the housing market or at the credit front …
BUT … […]

Want to see, what happens, if you put stupid stop orders in a computer driven market on light volume days as we have them now???
As most traders already squared their books for Q1 or … in Asia … already are done with their whole business year …
A saying goes … these are the days, when […]

As we all know, the U.S. real estate market is facing a big crisis …
Prices are going down, the consumer is hurt and the economy starts to roll over.
But … at least the U.S. has a falling currency, which helps, and Helicopter Ben, doing until the impossible to float the boat
Even if it […]

Only 3 days left to trade in Q1 …
What do we see?
Volume dries out … volatility comes down …
Bad news keeps coming in …
Today …
- a “profit warning” from Deutsche Bank
- an Oppenheimer downgrade for financials
- an Citibank settlement on Enron (expensive)
- the worst new home sales numbers in 13 years
- an Oracle “miss” after […]

How long???
EVERY SINGLE DATA (hard fact) is MONSTERNEGATIVE … only sentiment holds us up …
Every day we wait for figures … with very LOW expectations already …
Every day we even get more bearish figures … and still the market holds or even squeezes.
Will we pay for that one day? Will we face our crash, when […]

and how you could read it
We learn again, that it is not the news, but the expectations around it what makes markets move.
Means … if you expect the world to end … everything less is positive.
Today’s news was taken again positive as markets rebalance after the huge March expiration and ahead of the […]

I wish you all a peaceful easter holiday!
After having a look at today’s markets … very thin and waiting for erratic expiration related moves …
I call it a day
Take care!
See you back on Tuesday
Best regards Oli

Despite all the postive factors, the daily news flow keeps markets down …
Today, the news of the day was not the successful VISA IPO, but the rumours around HBOS, the UK lender as well as news about Thornburg Mortgage, which seemingly will file for bankruptcy and the talk about different hedge funds having huge liquidity […]