Goldman on crude oil …
Goldman hikes their forecast for the average price of crude oil for H2 2008 …
from 107 to 141(!!!) $ …
If they are right … equity markets should suffer BIG time …
Even if retail sales rise … on gasoline sales 
Reason for the Goldman action is higher demand from China due to the earthquake, which destroyed power plants.
Mai 20th, 2008 at 02:01
Oli, mein freund, some anecdotal evidence here for you: I bought a Vespa motor scooter nearly six years ago when gas was hitting 2 bucks a gallon in Seattle area. Now it’s over 4 dollars. (Autsch!) My scooter is a blessing - 60 miles to the gallon, give or take. Elsewhere, budget-wise, I’m cutting back everywhere I can, and not taking any road trips this year either, thanks to high gas cost. I know Europeans have been used to high petrol costs for years, but us Yanks have a lot of catching up to do, price wise, and many will surely balk at what they feel are conspiratorially high gas prices. Many people will suffer. Many businesses will suffer. Equity markets will suffer. This “pain at the pump” can’t continue much longer without some serious “collateral damage,” no?
Mai 20th, 2008 at 07:09
Not so sure aout the “negative” affect on equities from rising oil…if you look at the markets since crude syatyed rallying (from 50 usd) , markets have more or less gone up, or ignored rising oil…especially DOW transports (which should be the one most affected)…
maybe if OIL reaches 200 then it changes…I think that OIL falling will affect mkts more…would be sign of falling demand, hence slowdown…
perverse isn’t it!!
Mai 20th, 2008 at 07:55
Thanks Eric, thanks Mark …
Oil often has a positive correaltion with equity markets … as long as moves are “slow” …
problem is … demand is coming from “outside” and growth as well … only the multinationals gain from that … so a split picture
I stilll think, the bears will win
Mai 21st, 2008 at 20:58
welcome back mr. oli
& i hope to reach the target of 6800.
will your openion ( subject ) of oil rising had hit the dax target , it fall from 7260 to 7060 today
i wish if you can support us with any web site for dax signal in english language if possible so we can mixed it with your classical analyse .
thanks alot
Mai 21st, 2008 at 21:39
Thank you … I work on a technical signal “service” … but this will take some time … have a look on www.ridingthebund.com … my friend and collegue has a BUND Future service there, which is very good.
Take care Oli