BONDS … selling off
Bonds are selling off as June contracts are close to expire …
WHY???
Inflation is ramping, credit crunch seems managable … so the Hedges are SOLD.
And now the speculation starts … WHAT’s NEXT???
Interest rates HAVE TO RISE!!! Next step of FED and ECB will be UP … a rate HIKE!!!
This is reflected first in selling of long dated bonds … even more so as current rates don’t pay inflation …
First voices are appearing, recommending the FED to HIKE RATES in
O N E (!!!) STEP back to the pre-crunch level …
If they did … it would quite shock the markets … so better one is prepared …
My opinion …
1. Commodities will face a deep correction …
2. Bonds will fall … I see Bunds going BELOW 110 …
3. Equity markets will have a 2nd wave down … NEW LOWS
Don’t ask me, where to put your money … and don’t tell me, there MUST be something rising …
It went ALL up together … now it should fall together 
C’mon … I have a positive …
The US DOLLAR should benefit 
… at least something …
Mai 29th, 2008 at 16:49
1. commodities are starting to slump in past few days
2. bonds are getting dumped but may reverse later
3. equity’s probably flat - down
but don’t count on rate increase in near term
and put your money into oil.
Mai 29th, 2008 at 20:01
Let me “repeat it” for you
I am sure, that there are NO more rate cuts …
and yes I put my money in commodities … On the SHORT side
Don’t take it personal … but could you explain to me, why I should buy OIL? And why could bonds reverse in a inflation environment?
Even in a crisis … they have at this valuation NO SEXAPPEAL 4 me
Take care!
Mai 30th, 2008 at 01:13
i never said about a rate cut. bonds are getting dump coz of the good news, but what about the bad news down the road? about inflation, everybody knows that rate cuts gonna accelerate it. but then why did they still cut?
this’ just a personal opinion. don’t take it too seriously
Mai 30th, 2008 at 13:28
No worries …
Writing and talking about it is fun …
living the implications is serious
They cut to save the financial system … even accepting the cost of inflation …
worrisome …
Mai 30th, 2008 at 17:25
u know, big fish eat small fish.
which kinda fish are u?
Mai 30th, 2008 at 19:24
Many years I worked for the sharks … now I;m small fish, but quick
Because I know how the sharks work, I’m most of the times save and still eat good and much
Mai 30th, 2008 at 20:19
You’re right on the money on treasury rates rising and going up more. I do not think municipals are as over sold as treasuries.