with Oli | Strategies


Archive for Mai, 2008

More pain to come … (part 1)

Dienstag, Mai 20th, 2008

The credit crunch is far from over, according to Oppenheimer & Co. banking analyst Meredith Whitney … She sees consumers defaulting and an accumulation of these defaults will appear on the balance sheets of our “beloved banks” … She is quoted as follows: “Just as strained liquidity pushed so many small and mid-sized specialty finance [...]

Now even the core inflation rises …

Dienstag, Mai 20th, 2008

… even the reported one biggest rise in 17(!!!) years … Now you might ask: “Are there more than ONE inflation rate?” My answer: “Looking into my pockets YES!” Now even the public starts getting into it … So … please read the article below!!! Copyright by www.marketwatch.com

Goldman on crude oil …

Montag, Mai 19th, 2008

Goldman hikes their forecast for the average price of crude oil for H2 2008 … from 107 to 141(!!!) $ … If they are right … equity markets should suffer BIG time … Even if retail sales rise … on gasoline sales Reason for the Goldman action is higher demand from China due to the [...]

Expiration … and everybody had to buy … again

Freitag, Mai 16th, 2008

After 10 days of stepping sideways … not being able to move … today expiration demand overwhelmed sellers. We finally reached our 7190 Dax cash target … What’s next? Next week will be very interesting as bulls now are under pressure to fefend their territory. Next week will decide, whether we go into rallye mode, [...]

Technical issues …

Mittwoch, Mai 14th, 2008

Unfortunately, I encounter since yesterday major electricity and internet outages Hope to be back up soon … thanks for bearing with me! Today’s news … ALL negative … – BoE sees inflation for several(!) quarters above target … risk for LOWER growth … recession possible. – Moody’s again looking at bond insurers … BE AWARE!!! [...]

MBIA … and the market does not react

Montag, Mai 12th, 2008

Complacency? MBIA books another loss … just bigger than their marketcap … has only 2.5% marketshare of new business in Q1 … Markets still green … HSBC … took their expected write offs … and see housing problems continue … (so do I) Nobody cares … they need to buy? Putting still unused cash to [...]

What now?

Donnerstag, Mai 8th, 2008

Markets are hesitating to move away from the current level … So far May hast produced twice the “1-day-squeeze-2-days-sell-pattern” … Tomorrow will be interesting as we get our deserved weekly candle … In the S&P, 1400 is the watershed … as last week opened here … A close below 1400 would call for more downside [...]

Bears back at work :)

Mittwoch, Mai 7th, 2008

Not only me After technical targets were reached, selling set in … WHO? YES The ones who “know” … PPT was rumoured to sell the rally, using demand from underinvested HF’s … Funny … but true … Now they hide it behind the Goldman OIL story and the UBS statement, that MONOLINE WRITE OFFS MIGHT [...]