with Oli | Strategies


Archive for Mai, 2008

More pain to come … (part 1)

Dienstag, Mai 20th, 2008

The credit crunch is far from over, according to Oppenheimer & Co. banking analyst Meredith Whitney …
She sees consumers defaulting and an accumulation of these defaults will appear on the balance sheets of our “beloved banks” …
She is quoted as follows:
“Just as strained liquidity pushed so many small and mid-sized specialty finance companies to […]

Now even the core inflation rises …

Dienstag, Mai 20th, 2008

… even the reported one biggest rise in 17(!!!) years …
Now you might ask: “Are there more than ONE inflation rate?”
My answer: “Looking into my pockets YES!”
Now even the public starts getting into it … So … please read the article below!!!

Copyright by www.marketwatch.com

Goldman on crude oil …

Montag, Mai 19th, 2008

Goldman hikes their forecast for the average price of crude oil for H2 2008 …
from 107 to 141(!!!) $ …
If they are right … equity markets should suffer BIG time …
Even if retail sales rise … on gasoline sales
Reason for the Goldman action is higher demand from China due to the earthquake, […]

Expiration … and everybody had to buy … again

Freitag, Mai 16th, 2008

After 10 days of stepping sideways … not being able to move …
today expiration demand overwhelmed sellers.
We finally reached our 7190 Dax cash target … What’s next?
Next week will be very interesting as bulls now are under pressure to fefend their territory.
Next week will decide, whether we go into rallye mode, squeezing up to around […]

Technical issues …

Mittwoch, Mai 14th, 2008

Unfortunately, I encounter since yesterday major electricity and internet outages
Hope to be back up soon … thanks for bearing with me!
Today’s news … ALL negative …
- BoE sees inflation for several(!) quarters above target … risk for LOWER growth … recession possible.
- Moody’s again looking at bond insurers … BE AWARE!!!
- US foreclosures […]

MBIA … and the market does not react

Montag, Mai 12th, 2008

Complacency? MBIA books another loss …
just bigger than their marketcap … has only 2.5% marketshare of new business in Q1 …
Markets still green …
HSBC … took their expected write offs … and see housing problems continue … (so do I)
Nobody cares … they need to buy?
Putting still unused cash to work? Shortcovering?
I’d love to […]

What now?

Donnerstag, Mai 8th, 2008

Markets are hesitating to move away from the current level …
So far May hast produced twice the “1-day-squeeze-2-days-sell-pattern” …
Tomorrow will be interesting as we get our deserved weekly candle …
In the S&P, 1400 is the watershed … as last week opened here …
A close below 1400 would call for more downside … the financials […]

Bears back at work :)

Mittwoch, Mai 7th, 2008

Not only me
After technical targets were reached, selling set in … WHO?
YES The ones who “know” … PPT was rumoured to sell the rally, using demand from underinvested HF’s …
Funny … but true …
Now they hide it behind the Goldman OIL story and the UBS statement, that MONOLINE WRITE OFFS MIGHT […]