Market seems still to be in denial as there is still discussion going on, whether we are in a BEAR MARKET
At least no discussion about that in Germany or France … both indices lost 20+ % in H1 …
Here some of the DIAMONDS of the american market … with one question …
If this […]

Interesting sentiment picture today …
First …
Barclays issued a “financial storm” warning …
saying:
- that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall “below zero”.
- There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise […]

Nice downrally today as many investors abondaned equity positions ahead of H1 end.
2 pieces made all run for cover …
1. Goldman Sachs recommends to SHORT Citibank and Merill because of MORE WRITE OFFS …
2. Rating agency Fitch sees a possible cash crunch in 2009 for GM and Chrysler … even rumours of an immediate filing […]

As expected a short-sighted vote for unchanged today …
I don’t like the statement at all … as it is too dovish to curb inflation
and at best naive … as it talks about growth “revival”
Markets reaction is so far split … advantage bears.
It will be interesting to see tomorrow, how the investors react …
as […]

Again we play “Waiting on the FED” … but something is different …
This time markets only stop to fall … they don’t rise …
The FED’s decision is said to be “UNCHANGED”.
Bad enough …
Inflation is accelerating and the FED is weaponless as the economy weakens further and the banks and financials are still in intensive care.
Usually […]

Merrill Lynch said its sees continued pressure on the U.S. equity
market in the coming months as it sees the S&P 500 Index as
less than 50% priced in for a U.S. recession that it believes
likely began in January.
U.S. Sector Strategist Brian Belski said that given the
deteriorating fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop, he
doesn’t believe the stock market has […]

Market commentators don’t get it …
They say, that the expiration PRESSURED the markets … WRONG!!!
The expiration held the markets up until the last moment …
after the shorts were covered … market started to accelerate to the downside.
We have now FRESH MEDIUM TERM SELL SIGNALS!!!
And a lot of complacency … why?
Have a look at the VIX […]

Citibank CFO Gary Crittenden is quoted:
“If current trends prevail, it is fair to conclude we will continue to have substantial additional marks on our subprime exposure this quarter.”
“It’s reasonable to expect that credit costs will continue to rise through 2008, and that provisions for losses in its consumer business will also grow.”
“Expects revenue growth […]