with Oli | Strategies


H2 … hello volatility …

H2 started quite volatile … and we all should be aware … as this footprint will be seen now many times …

But to that later …

First a word to the market as a whole …

What setup did we have?

A 9th down day in a row for the Nikkei … a record down month for June …
a weak last week, with investors cleaning up their acts as H1 closed.

So … what could we expect from today?

A bit of weakness early on caused by some remaining overhang on the sellside … but then …

what about some new positioning, some short covering even as it is a short week …
ECB and payrolls coming up on Thursday, a half trading day as Friday is July, 4th.

And … the US markets followed exactly that game plan :) Came within 1(!) point of the 1260 S&P Future low and rallied to close higher on the day.

A nice green candle … but what did the Europeans do?
Call them blind or helpless … or just victims of their stupidity and their focusing of being afraid … whatever … :)

They started a wild ride …

On rumours of a further 4bln $ write off for UBS (no surprise) and the at least 5th repeat, that Israel is said to be ready to attack Iran (yawn!), they started to fall apart … funny markets like Portugal and Greece lost up to 5% … The remainder of Europe lost around 3% … as expected weak PMI numbers came in …

All in all … the Europeans jumped off the cliff … without a reason :) AGAIN!

The Dax as an example … went from a 6455 open down to 6321 (4 points below the respective level, which is 1260 S&P)
then bounced to 6407 on short covering (ISM came in better and S&P did not sell off).

As the S&P tested its 1260 level … the DAX sold off to a low of 6285 (40 points “too far”)
to only recover back up to the 6400 level as the S&P followed its gameplan :)

Please let me have the same “drugs”, these Europeans are on during trading ;)

Volatility is the name of the game …

Now let’s go back to the beginning … the footprint …

Today General Motors … and … see yesterday … we have a lot of stocks like GM.

GM hit yesterday the lowest level in 53 years … RESPECT :)

It had today a trading range of 2,55 $ which represents around 23%(!!!) of the stocks value!!!

WOW!!!

At the close it was up only 2.7% but what a ride … WHY?
It was oversold … and then had BAD June car sales … but better than feared :)
Still on HEAVY incentives … but anyway … they still sold cars …

Be aware … we will see these movements OFTEN!!! Especially in the financials !!!

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