Payrolls and ECB could push the market off the cliff …
Difficult day tomorrow … a “half day” in America with Friday being a national holiday …
And the markets are at the cliff’s edge … still balancing … but without any firm grip …
What will we see???
- the third bounce from this level … which would be very rare?
- a short lived bounce which will be followed soon by the downmove (orderly retreat)?
- a capitulation of the markets … a crash?
ECB will most probably raise interest rates by 0.25% …
Payrolls are most probably down again …
So … with these events and all the fundamental stuff, which comes out everyday …
Likelihood of the 3rd bounce is in my eyes not better than 10% …
The shortterm bounce is possible … I rate it at 60% … as the Govt. can manipulate the numbers, but can not stem the tide forever …
Crash? 30% chance … VERY HIGH for an outlier event …
Why?
1987 Crash was caused by the Bundesbank raising rates … 
and!!!
Never … in my memory … was a market under such pressure THAT COMPLACENT … AUTSCH!!!
and 3rd …
The likelihood of a military “problem” concerning IRAN is too high to be neglected …
So …
Duck … but don’t yet cover 
The fat tail, the black swan could be just around the corner …
Stay tuned!
Juli 3rd, 2008 at 04:00
what happened with the feds? no rate cut at that time?
Juli 3rd, 2008 at 13:17
The FED took itself out of the equation
Juli 3rd, 2008 at 15:47
from what i heard, it was a dollar crisis originated in HK and the spread began. care to elaborate?
Juli 3rd, 2008 at 21:00
hmmm … to be honest … I don’t understand, what you are taking about?
Could you please be more specific?
Thanks …
Juli 4th, 2008 at 03:09
the crisis started in HK then it spread. what’s the relation with the bundesbank raising rate?