with Oli | Strategies


Archive for September, 2008

Rumour mill in full swing …

Donnerstag, September 25th, 2008

As volume dries out after recent swings and market action …
and Q3 end means, that LESS market participants really trade …
Rumour mill at its best …
Today … apart from the hourly “new input” from the bailout package …
We had the following rumours doing the rounds …
- HSBC will buy UBS and sell its investment banking […]

Q3 end looms …

Mittwoch, September 24th, 2008

Markets wait for the bailout package … especially the TIMING
End of Q3 comes closer and seemingly, market still is long and has to deleverage …
First 2 weeks of October might set the tone for the remainder of 2008.
Be aware, that during the last days of Q3 we might see some winding down of positions as […]

Buffett invests in Goldman …

Mittwoch, September 24th, 2008

Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett’s holding company, invests at least 5bln$ in Goldman Sachs.
Buffett buys 5bln$ of perpetual preferred stock issued by the investment bank. The securities pay a dividend of 10% and are callable anytime at a 10% premium, meaning Goldman can buy them back at the higher price.
He as well buys warrants to purchase […]

Market loses confidence … again

Dienstag, September 23rd, 2008

Another day goes by … without a “solution”
So market sells off … ass Hank and Ben struggle
The expiration-induced squeeze is over … equities and oil
Now it is back to reality …
No quick solution … no upmove in the market
As easy as it gets …
TIC TOC … TIC TOC … TIC TOC
Even manipulation […]

Dollar plummets, commodities spike …

Montag, September 22nd, 2008

First reaction after the forced short squeeze on equities last Friday …
Get out of the equity market … back into commodities …
Oct. Crude expired today and had a MONSTER SQUEEZE up to above 120$ … WOW
November trades still well below 110$ …
These expiration related moves … as we in Germany saw it last week in […]

My thoughts on what happened last week …

Sonntag, September 21st, 2008

Just a list … not complete … not necessarily in order of importance …
1. Biggest manipulation of ALL TIME!!!
2. By doing this, we are ASSURED of a WAVE of INFLATION!!!
3. A currency reform will follow!!!
4. Investment Themes are SURVIVAL and DELEVERAGING!!!
5. Recession … here we come!!!
6. Don’t think, that markets move with fundamentals … it […]

Germany follows U.K. and U.S. …

Samstag, September 20th, 2008

In a surprise decision, the German financial market supervisor, the BaFin follows
into the footsteps of the FSA and the SEC …
With immediate effect and until the 31st of December …
SHORT SELLING in 11 financial stocks is PROHIBITED!!!
The 11 stocks are:
AAREAL BANK
ALLIANZ SE
AMB GENERALI HOLDING
COMMERZBANK
DEUTSCHE BANK
DEUTSCHE BÖRSE
DEUTSCHE POSTBANK
HANNOVER RÜCKVERSICHERUNG
HYPO REAL ESTATE HOLDING
MLP
MÜNCHENER RÜCKVERSICHERUNGS-GESELLSCHAFT AG

SEC copies U.K. measures …

Freitag, September 19th, 2008

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission early Friday issued an emergency order prohibiting short selling in financial companies. The regulator said it was acting in concert with the U.K.’s Financial Services Authority, which made a similar ban on Thursday. The SEC said the action was taken “to protect the integrity and quality of the securities […]