EURO and OIL … REVISITED
We had BULL markets in both … an UGLY overshooting in OIL … a nailing the top in EURO …
Now a superb correction … TIME TO LOOK TO THE UPSIDE(!!!) again!!!
Here is the post … 18th of APRIL 2008
Now … here the charts … and the explanation …
First … OIL
Copyright by Tradestation
Then … EURO
Copyright by Tradestation
The Oil was the UGLY one … After the 2006 selloff from around 88.50 to 52 $, it katapulted 261% of this downmove to the upside … an EXTREMLE RARE event … I called the top early, BUT … trading the WEEKLY chart has its advantages … the final SELL signal
came at 130 $ and as you see, the “W” formation still had its sense … it was built at around 50% of this MONSTERMOVE … and!!! we retraced it ALL … At the moment we are stabilizing at the level, where the run begun … so … NO MORE SHORTS in OIL … even a small speculative LONG could be justified … I WATCH it …
The EURO was the OBEDIENT one 
… Why? More chart players are in the currency markets … even the CBs use charts … and … AGAIN … We REVERSED ALL of the MOVE … back to the base, we started from … Now, due to the hyperventilating FED, we are looking at a possible TURNAROUND … AGAIN(?) the trendsetter for OIL???
ONE MORE THING … The EURO started a HUGE rallye 2002 at 0,85 … and we had a HUGE “W formation from 2004 to 2006 … at around the middle of the whole move … and the LOW some days ago RETRACED EXACTLY 50(!!!)% 
So … I want to see a decent BOUNCE … Now in EURO … later in OIL …
Have a good time trading … good things are coming to those who are prepared and patient 
November 26th, 2008 at 18:12
Happy day, Oli. Cheers to a future bounce. One of those rogue wave rallies if I’m not mistaken.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving, to all
November 26th, 2008 at 20:49
I completely agree …
CL = 68
EUR = 1,38
2-3 weeks
November 28th, 2008 at 12:44
too early. At the moment I see a triangle. It´s a little bit early to call it such, but look a the nicely climbing lows and don´t forget: the highs are falling too. USD/EUR has a tendency to change course by the end of the year. Could be now, but could be end Dec frist weeks of Jan too. So no need to hurry and I definitely don´t see USD at 1,38 in 3 weeks. I thought similar things already at 1,45; 1,38; 1,30 didn´t trade them and happy to not have traded.
The fundamentals are crying for a spike. the technicals at least for a big bounce. And what happens? the thing is falling. So the obvious still seems to be false.
I see the dollar as an investment hedge and as such it will climb once people want to be invested in the US once more and want to hedge the USD risk. Seems that the number of foreign players wanting equals the number of US investors reallocating from exterior und the number of foreignrs still selling on negative mood. The worldwide selloff as reduced hedging necessity by whatever measure you are trying to account for. Let´s see if and when hegde interest comes back.
He who buys now is not going for percent moves any more but for doubles and triples and thus currency losses aren´t the reason for any hegdes any more. And I don´t know if those still existing match well enough to not making those folks think of reduction. So let the triangle work.
November 28th, 2008 at 12:55
good points … triangles are trendfollowing patterns …
there is no need to be short in the USD without further evidence … [or just for fun]
in fact … although i mentionend 1,38 … Im watching out for short entries …
if there is no bounce … there is no bounce …
and if there is no bounce (during the next 2-3 weeks) … USD could be ready for the next move up …
the thing is … there is a strong CORRELATION between CL / USD and DAX …
… so if DAX could creep up to 5.200 – 5.600 … this would coincidate with a weaker USD as well …
so … I guess … 1,38 is still in the air …
November 28th, 2008 at 12:58
correction: … im watching out for LONG USD entries …
November 28th, 2008 at 14:18
right EUR CL SP DAX all move in common these days. It´s the typical fact in a liquidity driven crash. Everything goes down. Have you realized that DAX OCT 07/08 – 37,8% is nearly exactly SP OCT 07/08 -37,5% and besides JPM EMA Bond Index is -37% OCT/OCT too… erasing 5 1/2 years of performance. Strang correlations these days.
But if you are looking for further stronger USD you are looking for further crash in stocks. Where are your levels?
Dezember 16th, 2008 at 21:24
1,38 … 3 weeks …
Dezember 16th, 2008 at 23:23
so and now Henning. Correction over or big move to 1,75??
Dezember 16th, 2008 at 23:27
interesting idea … very interesting …
depreciating the currency … depreciating the US foreign debt …
very interesting … indeed …
but right now … I have no idea … but Im NOT yet short the EURO …
Dezember 16th, 2008 at 23:32
more interesting question: Are you still long the EUR?
Dezember 16th, 2008 at 23:34
anyhow: Why do you want to buy a currency that the state wants to kill by issuing as much as you like of it. Always led to currency reform historically.
Dezember 16th, 2008 at 23:36
they are just traders. If some billion succers give me money at 3%. then let´s invest it and if that doesn´t work, let´s print more to pay the interest.
That´s what they are doing. And the curious thing: The masses are applauding. Everybody happy. Sufficient money there (again). *lol*
Dezember 16th, 2008 at 23:37
for the first time since years … the correlation between CL and USD is kind of broken …
CL remains under pressure … USD rises …
Right now, I only OBEY this phenomenon … but could truly be a major break up …
Only if the former correlation restores itself … I continue thinking in same categories than until recently …
so … your idea … I say … its interesting … but I WAIT for further PROOFs …