Difficult day tomorrow … a “half day” in America with Friday being a national holiday …
And the markets are at the cliff’s edge … still balancing … but without any firm grip …
What will we see???
- the third bounce from this level … which would be very rare?
- a short lived bounce which will be […]

H2 started quite volatile … and we all should be aware … as this footprint will be seen now many times …
But to that later …
First a word to the market as a whole …
What setup did we have?
A 9th down day in a row for the Nikkei … a record down month for June […]

Market seems still to be in denial as there is still discussion going on, whether we are in a BEAR MARKET
At least no discussion about that in Germany or France … both indices lost 20+ % in H1 …
Here some of the DIAMONDS of the american market … with one question …
If this […]

Interesting sentiment picture today …
First …
Barclays issued a “financial storm” warning …
saying:
- that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall “below zero”.
- There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise […]

Nice downrally today as many investors abondaned equity positions ahead of H1 end.
2 pieces made all run for cover …
1. Goldman Sachs recommends to SHORT Citibank and Merill because of MORE WRITE OFFS …
2. Rating agency Fitch sees a possible cash crunch in 2009 for GM and Chrysler … even rumours of an immediate filing […]

As expected a short-sighted vote for unchanged today …
I don’t like the statement at all … as it is too dovish to curb inflation
and at best naive … as it talks about growth “revival”
Markets reaction is so far split … advantage bears.
It will be interesting to see tomorrow, how the investors react …
as […]

Again we play “Waiting on the FED” … but something is different …
This time markets only stop to fall … they don’t rise …
The FED’s decision is said to be “UNCHANGED”.
Bad enough …
Inflation is accelerating and the FED is weaponless as the economy weakens further and the banks and financials are still in intensive care.
Usually […]

Merrill Lynch said its sees continued pressure on the U.S. equity
market in the coming months as it sees the S&P 500 Index as
less than 50% priced in for a U.S. recession that it believes
likely began in January.
U.S. Sector Strategist Brian Belski said that given the
deteriorating fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop, he
doesn’t believe the stock market has […]