with Oli | Strategies


Posts Tagged ‘bond insurers’

MBIA … and the market does not react

Montag, Mai 12th, 2008

Complacency? MBIA books another loss …
just bigger than their marketcap … has only 2.5% marketshare of new business in Q1 …
Markets still green …
HSBC … took their expected write offs … and see housing problems continue … (so do I)
Nobody cares … they need to buy?
Putting still unused cash to work? Shortcovering?
I’d love to […]

Bears back at work :)

Mittwoch, Mai 7th, 2008

Not only me
After technical targets were reached, selling set in … WHO?
YES The ones who “know” … PPT was rumoured to sell the rally, using demand from underinvested HF’s …
Funny … but true …
Now they hide it behind the Goldman OIL story and the UBS statement, that MONOLINE WRITE OFFS MIGHT […]

Still sentiment against fundamentals …

Dienstag, Mai 6th, 2008

Or … in other words … much money … no brain
The facts … of today only …
-UBS … dissappointing figures … even after very weak expectations …
says … MORE WRITE OFFS … sees MONOLINE induced ones … AUTSCH
-FNM … worse than expected … but positive talk despite their view, housing market will […]

Ambac is “back” … to haunt the markets

Mittwoch, April 23rd, 2008

Analysts are still way off getting the point in this crisis …
Ambac Q1 result was a net loss of $11.69 a share, versus net income of $2.02 a year earlier, the company said. Its operating loss in the latest quarter was $6.93 a share.
Ambac was expected to report a loss of $1.51 a […]

Write offs to continue …

Montag, Februar 25th, 2008

Oppenheimer and Goldman Sachs bring the RED INK to the financials again.
Goldman might be oportunistic as it sees cuts for Q1 but does not really change the 2008 outlook by too much … You know … HOPE is important
They expect:
- Citibank to write off a further 12 bln$
- JP Morgan to write off […]

CNBC saves the weekend … smells like manipulation

Freitag, Februar 22nd, 2008

U.S. market action is becoming ridiculous … if you thought, this happens only in the 3rd World, read on
Every(!) fundamental indicator shows it and every objective newswatcher knows, that we ARE IN RECESSION mode … everybody knows, that we ARE IN A CREDITCRUNCH, everybody knows, that STAGFLATION LOOMS …
SO how do you […]

Bond Insurer timebomb ticking quicker …

Freitag, Februar 22nd, 2008

After polical pressure mounts to split monoliners into a good insurer/bad insurer-model and FGIC already working on it, MBIA and Ambac seem to follow the same path.
Makes policymakers happy as their muni bond business can go on without being hurt, but should make investors worry, who will be hurt as banks will have to disclose […]

Bear market persists … what next?

Dienstag, Februar 19th, 2008

Bears still reigning … sharp short lived rallies and longer declines on bigger volume …
The fight is on … the price is high! Fed, politics and financials trying to hold markets up … bears trying to squash them …
Rumour-Mill spinning like crazy … every day …
Today’s rumours … not all, just a few …
- RBS […]