Tomorrow on the OPEN of the US market, the VIX will expire …
and this might be the key to understand the recent rallye.
Or maybe better … the end of the recent rallye.
During the strong downmove into march, most investors were stunned, that the VIX (the measure of volatility) did not spike at all.
This was commented […]

After virtually throwing up after reading, that AIG will pay around 1.2 bln$ in bonuses …
The outlook for next week is “scary” …
We have the following events …
Monday: Industrial production and capacity utilization for February
Tuesday: Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meets, Producer Price Index for February, Producer Price Index for February, Hearing on […]

Today we completed the THIRD(!) 10% bounce for the markets in 2009.
And guess what? … YES, I’m going to fade it … AGAIN.
We might have some air still left, BUT most of the bounce is done IMHO.
So … nice and smooth I will start to SELL any intraday “spike” or overbought levels again … Friday […]

As talkingheads and public becomes extremely bearish, WATCH OUT …
We might be extemely close to a BOTTOM … at least for a decent bounce …
Every day we hear new superlatives … worst year since … worst performance since a.s.o.
WATCH OUT for a REVERSAL!!! FDAX 3.6xx sounds good S&P below 700 … it could/should happen […]

After the WORST week in the history of stock markets …
We had the best day in the history of stock markets … at least here in Europe …
Japan closed? U.S. partially off? The more we rise …
Volatility is here to stay … at least a bit …
Let’s see, what’s up next …
Friday … option expiration […]

Governments around the globe step in to turn markets around …
And … they do it on EXPIRATION DAY … again!!!
U.S.:
- considering buying back mortgage debt investing around HALF A TRILLION(!!!) US$!!!
- considering setting up a NEW agency to buy into the financial sector
- SEC considering BAN OF SHORT SALES!!!
UK:
- bans short sales!!!
China:
- eliminates tax […]

The Federal Reserve said it was making it easier for financial institutions to access Fed liquidity by easing terms on its borrowing facilities and accepting a much wider range of assets as collateral. The Fed meets to decide on interest rates on Tuesday.
It widened the set of assets eligible as collateral for loans of Treasuries […]

What happened today?
Yes, we got the expected bounce in equities … and yes, it faded soon …
we had a squeeze in the last hour … surely the PPT was involved
The interesting thing seems to be … as so far nothing fundamental has changed yet … investors are just dashing to the sidelines, closing positions.
So still […]