with Oli | Strategies


Posts Tagged ‘outlook’

Quarter end comes quickly …

Dienstag, März 24th, 2009

Big March expiration over … was positive as many had to cover Bank bailout details out … greeted positively, what ever the reason … U.S. markets jumped up a total of more than 20% … anybody telling me, it is a bull market? Some banks and insurance companies doubled or even tripled from the low [...]

Expiration looms and too much “talk” …

Sonntag, März 15th, 2009

After virtually throwing up after reading, that AIG will pay around 1.2 bln$ in bonuses … The outlook for next week is “scary” … We have the following events … Monday: Industrial production and capacity utilization for February Tuesday: Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meets, Producer Price Index for February, Producer Price Index for [...]

3rd 10% bounce this year …

Donnerstag, März 12th, 2009

Today we completed the THIRD(!) 10% bounce for the markets in 2009. And guess what? … YES, I’m going to fade it … AGAIN. We might have some air still left, BUT most of the bounce is done IMHO. So … nice and smooth I will start to SELL any intraday “spike” or overbought levels [...]

The “Basketball Effect” …

Mittwoch, März 11th, 2009

Major rallye today … why? I call it the “Basketball Effect” If you put a basketball under water and let it go … it pops exactly into your face … Market was under severe pressure over the last month, dropping around 20(!!!)% … Now … shortly before March future expire/rolled over … a bounce was [...]

Closing in on targets …

Montag, März 2nd, 2009

As talkingheads and public becomes extremely bearish, WATCH OUT … We might be extemely close to a BOTTOM … at least for a decent bounce … Every day we hear new superlatives … worst year since … worst performance since a.s.o. WATCH OUT for a REVERSAL!!! FDAX 3.6xx sounds good S&P below 700 … it [...]

Be aware of CHINESE selling of BONDS …

Mittwoch, Februar 25th, 2009

Today morning we got it officially, that the Chinese won’t finance the US mess forever … China’s national pension fund said Wednesday it plans to adjust its investment portfolio this year by lowering its investment in bonds and increasing its direct equity investments as part of efforts to cope with the global and domestic economic [...]

Monthend bounce …

Mittwoch, Februar 25th, 2009

Welcome to the typical month end bounce … Interesting, that FED and Government are again more active at the end of the month Anyway … I still wait for ANY fundamental change … So … thanks to the manipulators … I enjoy the bounce Still the targets are lower … and as long as there [...]

The Bond-Miracle ???

Mittwoch, Februar 18th, 2009

As nobody so far was able to explain the Bond-Miracle to me … I just ask you First the facts … – we will have all-time-record-supply of BONDS coming as all these daily help programs some day need to be refinanced. – printing money is inflationary … at least I heard this. – FED sees [...]