Markets … after the huge BOUNCE back …
seemingly are dead in the water before the U.S. election …
BUT WHY???
The outcome seems clear … Barack Obama …
We know, that it will be January until he will take over …
So … as fundamental news gets BLEAKER every day … why are the players waiting to SELL???
Friday […]

Negative sentiment topping … just have a look at this e-mail from F.T. Alphaville …
Just count, how many times they use the “c-word” … AMAZING

So … let’s talk about a squeeze???

We had the markets close to capitulation as S&P traded below 1200 and DAX below 6000 …
then a brutal bounce … now the correction of the bounce …
usually we should “enjoy” now soon the 2nd bounce to the upside …
As S&P already retraced more than 60% of its bounce, the Dax stands close to the […]

Interesting sentiment picture today …
First …
Barclays issued a “financial storm” warning …
saying:
- that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall “below zero”.
- There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise […]

Or … in other words … much money … no brain
The facts … of today only …
-UBS … dissappointing figures … even after very weak expectations …
says … MORE WRITE OFFS … sees MONOLINE induced ones … AUTSCH
-FNM … worse than expected … but positive talk despite their view, housing market will […]

And again the market plays the card of hope …
After Q1 is booked … and with it some losses …
Everybody is bullish and confident again (unbelievable!)
Still there is NO VISIBILITY at all, how long and deep the recession might be …
NO CHANGES so far in the housing market or at the credit front …
BUT … […]

How long???
EVERY SINGLE DATA (hard fact) is MONSTERNEGATIVE … only sentiment holds us up …
Every day we wait for figures … with very LOW expectations already …
Every day we even get more bearish figures … and still the market holds or even squeezes.
Will we pay for that one day? Will we face our crash, when […]

More positive signs show up for the market …
Could mean that we have seen at least an intermediate BOTTOM.
1. We confirmed and held the January low.
2. A BIG name (Bear Stearns) went belly up and we still held up. This often marks the turning point.
3. Lehman stock price was able … after virtually halfing yesterday […]